AST SpaceMobile Inc (Derivatives) (ASTS)

$ASTS #ASTS Pretty wild price action lately, but the VWAP zone held on by a thread on Thursday at close. https://t.co/Kyl03fumlP

$ASTS a few charts. Today we engulfed the body of yesterday's candle which is often a reversal signal. Many indicators are at or coming off some of the most extreme lows also suggesting we experienced capitulation this week.

One thing worth noting is the RSI (5) tends to make a double bottom or divergent low, so I can't rule out the possibility of another test of this week's low or even an undercut. It likely comes down to the macro trade if that happens or not. Otherwise I'm pleased with today's action and how we closed.

Next we want to see a reclaim of the 8ema on a closing basis as well as a defense of that moving average going forward. We also want to see a weekly close back over key moving averages like the 55MAs and 50MAs.

*NFA

$ASTS I don't know if we fully appreciate the weight of this (quoted post). SpaceX isn't just validating how massive this market is but is also willing to go to war with mobile operators to penetrate this market.

Think about what this implies in CAPEX to get a robust service globally. They need lots of spectrum. They need spectrum that's operable in every region/country, which means buying a telecom just in the US only gets them access to US market spectrum, not global. They theoretically would need to buy telecoms in every region or country to make this a true global reach.

Their EchoStar spectrum does not include low band, which is desirable for penetrating buildings, cars, foliage, etc. They will need more and they will need to convince mobile operators that they won't be eaten (good luck), and they will need to get approval from each country to operate in that spectrum. It's not impossible but it's expensive and complex.

I think analysts either don't realize these details or haven't run the numbers on how expensive this project will be, and by extension what this should tell us about $ASTS business model and ease of access to this market in comparison to SpaceX's approach.

*NFA